Saturday, 18 February 2012

COMMENTARY - The geopolitical dynamics of the Syrian crisis

As a general perspective, one can say that the double arrogant veto of the two greatest global dictatorships (Russia and China) could be considered a "stimulus to enhance global democracy". Fine, but why would one claim so?

Let's consider the institutional architecture of global governance today, specifically the UN Security Council. In light of the bizarre governing criteria inside this council, a number of interesting questions arise:

1. Which instruments could be introduced to counter-balance a unilateral action taken by one of the permanent Member States of the UN Security Council (always within the UN legal framework)?

2. Which measures could be taken to offset any senseless decisions or those governed by personal interest made at the primary Global Security Watchdog institution (like Putin's/Medvedev's veto in favour of Assad)?

It would be hardly justifiable to consider the crisis in Syria as an internal affair; where Syrians are struggling against one of the most repressive regimes ever for democracy and freedom. One can easily claim that the geopolitical dynamics of the Syrian crisis are (de facto) an international concern that will be a principal factor in re-shaping the institutional order of the Global Governance System ex post. Oddio! and the Global Governance “Rationale” as well!

Intentionally or unintentionally Assad has smartly stated the following: Syria is not Tunisia, Syria is not Egypt, Syria is not Yemen and Syria is not Libya.

The USA, Europe, and Co. are now considering alternative instruments to address the Syrian crisis, for they  themselves are the ones who, directly or indirectly, paved the way for this “Primavera”, and this is why they are the most capable of creating alternative solutions for the rising challenges.

All scenarios are subject to discussion now; in Brussels, in Paris, in Berlin and in Washington (not in Doha). Pragmatically speaking, a Cold-war approach cannot be mimicked, for such a rationale is an intellectual monopoly of expired regimes (like the Assad’s). Therefore, it should not be surprising if a new Global Institutional Order evolves, where the Primavera Arab Governments and its “supporters” could be a cornerstone, for they have the appropriate surplus of liquidity to deploy (wherever feasible), and armed with Al-Jazeera to provide all the "rationale" (to a 400 million convinced audience) behind the neo politik. 

Science fiction can be easily digested vis-à-vis realpolitik, that’s obvious. However, underestimating the current indicators of the Syrian crisis is a serious miscalculation that could lead to an unfavorable future: a place where not many people would like to be.

By Mahmoud Bay